From changing leadership across the globe, to the Trump administration’s stance on “America first”, the U.S. could see some major changes in 2018. According to Eurasia Group, a leading political risk consulting firm, that may include an unexpected crisis, equivalent to the 2008 financial crisis.
CBS Evening News anchor Jeff Glor and Eurasia Group president and CBS News senior global affairs contributor Ian Bremmer discussed several global issues, including the ongoing violent protests in Iran.
“The reason it really matters is this gives the hardliners in Iran an opportunity to make the president and more reformist elements much more vulnerable,” said Bremmer. “It also gives President Trump an opportunity to beat up on the treatment of the Iranian citizens. He’s been hard-line anti-Iran since day one in the Presidency, makes U.S., Iranian confrontation more likely.”
As for the diplomatic crisis with North Korea, although South Korea recently offered talks with North Korea to find ways to cooperate ahead of the upcoming Winter Olympics, Bremmer pointed out the U.S. has made it clear it will not accept a North Korean nuclear program.
“Either Trump is going to have to flip and do a 180 or we’re entering the most dangerous environment that you and I have seen between these two countries,” Bremmer said.
As for what to watch in 2018, Bremmer said China has emerged as a major influence.
“For the last several years, we’ve had a United States that is seen as having less influence globally, in part because we don’t want to do it and ion part because other countries are doing more in their own backyards,” he said. “But the alternative has been nobody. This year, we see that China’s not only larger, not only do they have a leader that is much stronger and has consolidated more power anyone since Mao, but also is now prepared to stand up publicly and say the U.S. doesn’t want to do it on free trade, i’ll lead trade. U.S. doesn’t want to write checks globally for infrastructure, I will. U.S. wants to leave the Paris climate change, i’ll get involved.”
Bremmer said that makes other countries around the world — even American allies — want to move away from Washington and look toward Beijing.
As for that geopolitical crisis that he’s expecting in 2018?
“2018, there are an awful lot of potholes on this road and it’s hard for us to imagine we’re going to get through much longer, that’s much more sustainable, without us experiencing a crisis or two,” Bremmer said.
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